Morgan Stanley Sees September Pause in AI-Linked Bond Issuance, With Fourth-Quarter Rebound Expected
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Global AI-linked bond issuance slowed to about $23 billion in September, one of the year’s weakest monthly totals, while the US investment-grade market recorded no such issuance. Morgan Stanley characterises the slowdown as a temporary pause and expects issuance to recover in the fourth quarter, supported by hyperscaler spending on AI and data-center infrastructure.
- Global AI-linked bond issuance was about $23 billion in September; the US investment-grade segment recorded no issuance.
- AI-linked issuance reached $466 billion by the end of September, versus $216 billion in the prior full year.
- Morgan Stanley expects a fourth-quarter recovery, but not a repeat of earlier concentrated issuance volumes.
- Permitting, power availability, political constraints and interest rates are influencing data-center financing conditions.
- Morgan Stanley cut its annual forecast for data-center ABS and CMBS issuance to $25 billion-$30 billion.
Global AI-linked bond issuance fell to about $23 billion in September, according to Morgan Stanley data cited by S1. The US investment-grade market recorded no AI-linked issuance during the month, even as financing activity continued through other channels and currencies.
Morgan Stanley attributes the slowdown partly to issuers bringing forward financing earlier in the year. It also points to permitting constraints, power-supply limitations and political opposition affecting data-center development, as well as higher interest rates that may require project-financing terms to be reconsidered.
The September pause followed a substantially larger funding run-rate earlier in the year. Global AI-linked issuance had reached $466 billion by the end of September, compared with $216 billion for the whole of the prior year. Six hyperscalers—Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle and SpaceX—had raised about $254 billion across all currencies. Amazon completed a four-tranche £4.25 billion transaction in September in a non-dollar market.
Other September transactions included approximately $10 billion of high-yield bonds from SoftBank Group and around $0.5 billion of loan financing raised by AI data-center operator Crusoe. Total leveraged financing for the month was about $14 billion. Non-dollar hyperscaler issuance had reached roughly $72 billion year to date.
Morgan Stanley expects issuance to recover in the fourth quarter, including a return of high-quality hyperscalers to the US investment-grade debt market, though not a repeat of the earlier concentration of issuance. The bank forecasts combined 2027 CAPEX by the six hyperscalers at approximately $1.4 trillion.
For data-center projects, Morgan Stanley has reduced its forecast for annual ABS and CMBS issuance to $25 billion-$30 billion, implying a potential $5 billion-$10 billion of supply in the fourth quarter. This could indicate a more selective financing environment: large hyperscalers may be better positioned to access capital, while projects with uncertain permits, power supply or lease commitments could face higher funding costs and delayed financing.
The funding environment is becoming a material constraint on data-center and AI-infrastructure build-outs, alongside demand. Morgan Stanley’s assessment suggests that permitting, power availability, political constraints and borrowing costs can affect the timing and cost of capital, with project finance potentially more exposed than financing available to large hyperscalers.
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