Morgan Stanley IM’s Base Case Puts Global AI Data Center-Related Investment at $5 Trillion by 2030
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Morgan Stanley Investment Management has outlined a base-case scenario in which global investment related to AI data centers reaches $5 trillion by 2030. The firm also said its estimate for 2027 AI capital expenditure has risen to about $1.4 trillion, while debt-financing costs are increasing.
- Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s base case projects $5 trillion of global AI data center-related investment by 2030.
- Its estimate for 2027 AI-related capex has risen from about $700 billion in 2025 to approximately $1.4 trillion.
- Large data center operators are estimated to have roughly $3.4 trillion in future off-balance-sheet financing, lease and other payment commitments.
- Rising debt costs could make balance-sheet resilience and long-term funding access increasingly consequential for expansion.
Speaking at the Global Wealth Management Forum 2026 Shanghai Suhewan on 16 October, Vishal Khanduja, managing director and head of the broad markets fixed-income team at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, said the firm’s base case estimates that global AI data center-related investment could reach $5 trillion by 2030.
Morgan Stanley Investment Management also said its estimate of AI-related capital expenditure for 2027 has increased from about $700 billion in its 2025 assessment to approximately $1.4 trillion. The estimate concerns AI-related capex rather than commissioned data center capacity or actual investment already deployed.
The firm further estimated that large data center operators face roughly $3.4 trillion of future commitments associated with off-balance-sheet financing, leases and other payments. It said funding demand will be exceptionally high over the next three to five years, while the cost of debt financing is rising.
For the data center sector, the scenario points to a potentially large infrastructure funding requirement alongside tighter financing conditions. If realised, this could strengthen the relative position of operators with resilient balance sheets and access to long-term capital. More highly leveraged participants could face higher expansion costs or more constrained financing options.
The figures are forward-looking estimates, not measures of completed investment, operating capacity or committed projects.
The outlook illustrates the potential scale of the AI infrastructure investment cycle, while highlighting a financing constraint for data center operators. If the scenario materialises, balance-sheet strength and access to long-term funding could become more important as capital needs rise and debt becomes more expensive.
- — / 16 октября 2026 г. · КитайскийПервоисточник →
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