McKinsey Projects 24% CAGR in Data Center Power Demand Through 2030
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McKinsey’s Global Energy Perspective 2026 projects that data center electricity demand could grow at a 24% compound annual rate through 2030. In its most likely scenarios, power supply remains below demand from IT compute workloads, making energy delivery a central constraint on capacity expansion.
- McKinsey projects 24% CAGR in data center electricity demand through 2030.
- Its most likely scenarios place electricity supply below IT-compute demand through 2030.
- Interconnection, permitting, transformer lead times, generation equipment and EPC capacity are identified as delivery constraints.
- On-site gas generation, fuel cells and storage may help, but gas infrastructure can create further delays.
- Efficiency and workload flexibility could reduce demand relative to the base case.
McKinsey forecasts a 24% CAGR in data center electricity demand through 2030, according to reporting on its Global Energy Perspective 2026. The firm’s most likely scenarios indicate that electricity supply will remain below demand from IT compute workloads over that period.
The constraint is not limited to generation capacity. McKinsey identifies grid interconnection approvals, permitting processes and moratoria as barriers to supplying new data center loads. Lead times for transformers, availability of generation equipment, and engineering, procurement and construction resources are also cited as constraints on the pace at which power infrastructure can be delivered.
To accelerate access to firm capacity, developers are considering local gas-fired engines and turbines, fuel cells and battery energy-storage systems. These options may reduce dependence on utility infrastructure schedules, but gas-based generation remains dependent on pipeline infrastructure; competition for pipeline capacity can delay construction.
If the forecast is realised, secured and timely power availability could carry greater weight in data center project competitiveness than compute demand alone. This could increase demand for on-site and backup generation, energy storage, grid-connection infrastructure, transformer and turbine equipment, and EPC resources.
McKinsey also notes that stronger efficiency gains in AI, data center buildings and flexibility in the timing of compute workloads could reduce electricity demand relative to its base case. The 24% figure is a modelled forecast rather than an observed growth rate, and the available material does not provide country, regional, operator-level or absolute-capacity breakdowns.
The outlook shifts the limiting factor for data center growth beyond demand for AI and compute capacity to the ability to secure reliable power on schedule. Grid interconnection, permitting, generation equipment, transformers, energy storage and EPC capacity could become increasingly important determinants of project competitiveness.
- — / 7 октября 2026 г. · АнглийскийПервоисточник →
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