EIA Forecasts Record US Electricity Demand in 2026 and 2027 as Data-Center Load Expands
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The US Energy Information Administration forecasts that US electricity consumption will rise from a record 4,195 TWh in 2025 to 4,270 TWh in 2026 and 4,349 TWh in 2027. EIA identifies expansion of AI- and crypto-related data centers, alongside electrification of heating and transport, as key drivers of accelerating demand.
- EIA forecasts US electricity consumption of 4,270 TWh in 2026 and 4,349 TWh in 2027, both new records.
- AI- and crypto-related data-center expansion is identified as a principal driver of demand growth.
- New data-center grid connections in Texas have been temporarily paused.
- West South Central is expected to contribute the largest share of growth in total electricity sales.
- EIA projects a higher renewable share and lower coal share of US generation through 2027.
EIA expects US electricity consumption to set new records in both 2026 and 2027, rising from 4,195 TWh in 2025 to 4,270 TWh in 2026 and 4,349 TWh in 2027.
The agency directly links the acceleration in demand primarily to the expansion of data centers supporting AI and cryptoassets, as well as the electrification of heating and transportation. For data-center developers, operators and power providers, the forecast underscores that large-load growth is becoming a significant element of the national demand outlook rather than a localized planning issue.
Grid availability remains a practical constraint. In Texas, connections for new data-center projects have been temporarily paused. While EIA expects the West South Central region to account for the largest share of growth in total electricity sales, the source does not specify the capacity, number, ownership or delivery schedules of the projects affected by the Texas connection pause.
EIA’s generation outlook points to a changing supply mix alongside demand growth. Coal’s share of US generation is projected to decline from 17% in 2025 to 16% in 2026 and 14% in 2027. Renewable generation is forecast to rise from about 24% in 2025 to 25% in 2026 and 27% in 2027. Natural gas is projected to hold a 40% share in both 2026 and 2027, while nuclear is expected to remain at 18% over the same period.
For the US data-center market, this could imply greater competition for power capacity and interconnection rights, particularly in regions where grid access is constrained. The projected rise in renewable generation, alongside stable gas-fired generation, suggests that serving new load could depend on a combination of additional clean generation and gas-fired balancing capacity.
The outlook positions data-center load as a material contributor to US-wide electricity-demand growth, increasing the strategic importance of generation availability, grid interconnection and load management. Texas’ temporary pause on connecting new data-center projects also indicates that grid access could constrain project delivery in high-demand markets.
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