EIA Forecast Points to 41% Rise in PJM Wholesale Power Prices in 2026
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According to a 24/7 Wall St. report, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts that wholesale electricity prices in PJM will rise 41% in 2026 from 2025—the largest increase among the U.S. regions it tracks. The report links continuing pressure in PJM’s capacity market primarily to growing data-center load.
- EIA’s reported forecast calls for PJM wholesale power prices to increase 41% in 2026 versus 2025.
- PJM’s independent market monitor identifies data-center load growth as the main driver of tight capacity-market conditions.
- Higher energy and capacity costs could increase operating and interconnection costs for PJM data-center projects.
- Grid, substation and generation investment may be needed, but demand assumptions tied to proposed data centers create an overbuild risk.
- EIA projects U.S. commercial electricity demand, which includes data centers, to grow 2.8% in 2027.
EIA is forecast to see wholesale electricity prices in PJM increase 41% in 2026 compared with 2025, according to the report. No other EIA-tracked U.S. region is expected to see a comparable increase.
PJM is North America’s largest wholesale electricity market and serves more than 67 million people across all or parts of 13 states and Washington, D.C. It also includes areas with a high concentration of data-center development. The report cites PJM’s independent market monitor, which identifies rising data-center load as the principal driver of current and expected capacity-market conditions, including load growth, a tight supply-demand balance and elevated prices.
The immediate price environment has also been affected by extreme summer temperatures and winter storms, as well as natural-gas price volatility. The report therefore does not quantify the specific contribution of data-center demand to the projected PJM price increase. Nevertheless, EIA expects U.S. electricity consumption to set new records in 2026 and 2027 amid increased AI use. Commercial electricity demand—a category that includes data centers—is projected to rise 2.8% in 2027.
At the national level, average U.S. wholesale power prices are projected to rise 11% to $52/MWh. For PJM data-center operators and customers, this outlook could translate into higher and more volatile energy and capacity costs, while new projects may face greater competition for grid interconnection capacity. It could also support investment in transmission, substations and generation, but the report highlights a countervailing risk: infrastructure built for proposed data-center projects could prove excessive if those projects do not proceed or use less power than requested.
That uncertainty is material for utilities and regulators. Proposed data-center load may justify network and generation investment, but unmaterialized or reduced demand could leave other consumers exposed to a share of the resulting costs.
For data-center operators, tenants and developers in PJM, higher energy and capacity prices could raise operating and interconnection costs. The outlook also suggests stronger competition for available grid connections and a need for additional transmission, substation and generation investment, although demand forecasts based on proposed data-center projects carry a risk of overbuilding.
- — / 10 октября 2026 г. · АнглийскийПервоисточник →
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