Cathay Securities Flags Emerging Resource Constraints in US AI Data Center Expansion
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Cathay Securities says AI investment is set to account for a growing share of US GDP, based on published capital-expenditure forecasts. The firm sees no clear evidence of severe economy-wide resource crowding out yet, but expects continued data center expansion to increase pressure on construction labour, power equipment and capital markets over the next one to two years.
- Cathay Securities expects AI investment to take a growing share of US GDP, based on published CAPEX forecasts.
- No clear evidence of severe US-wide resource crowding out has been identified so far.
- Data center expansion could increase pressure on construction labour, electrical equipment and capital markets within one to two years.
- Power-related resources, construction delivery and financing may increasingly shape the pace of AI infrastructure deployment.
- The assessment is macroeconomic and does not substantiate capacity additions or procurement activity at individual data center projects.
In its September market review, Cathay Securities focused on whether AI infrastructure can sustain further capital-expenditure growth. The firm expects AI investment to represent an increasing share of US GDP, based on published CAPEX forecasts.
Cathay Securities does not identify clear evidence that AI investment has already caused severe resource displacement across the US economy. However, it argues that continued data center build-out could gradually tighten supply-demand conditions for construction labour, electrical equipment and capital markets over the next one to two years.
For the data center sector, the assessment places electricity-related resources, construction delivery and financing alongside AI compute demand as key determinants of the next growth phase. This suggests that competitive advantage could shift beyond the ability to procure AI accelerators toward the ability to secure power supply, electrical equipment, construction capacity and financing in advance.
The review also notes that indicators including imports of semiconductor-manufacturing equipment from Taiwan and South Korea, PMI, memory procurement and GPU rental prices have remained elevated since 2022. It does not, however, provide project-level data center capacity, CAPEX, commissioning schedules, operator commitments or contracted power and equipment supply.
The projected resource pressure remains forward-looking rather than evidence of an existing sector-wide shortage. The review is a macro-market assessment, not confirmation of expansion at any specific data center project.
The assessment highlights that AI data center deployment is increasingly constrained by infrastructure delivery rather than compute demand alone. Securing power-related equipment, construction capacity and financing could become a differentiator as operators and investors pursue further expansion.
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