Barclays forecasts slower data-center capacity additions outside China in 2027

Barclays expects the pace of data-center capacity additions outside China to slow sharply after a period of exceptional expansion. Annual growth in newly commissioned capacity is projected to exceed 100% in 2026 before declining to about 35% in 2027, with growth expected to stabilise in 2028.

The bank’s forecast calls for approximately 25 GW of new data-center capacity to enter service globally excluding China in 2027. Hyperscalers are expected to contribute more than 60% of that volume, underscoring their central role in the next wave of deployment.

For non-hyperscale developers, Barclays applies a more conservative assumption: only about 40% of the project pipeline converts into delivered capacity. This is a modelling assumption rather than an observed market-wide conversion rate. The bank identifies land availability, grid interconnections, supply-chain constraints and tighter financing conditions as key barriers to execution.

The implication is that a large announced pipeline may not translate directly into commissioned capacity. If the forecast plays out, capacity delivery could become more selective, with independent and smaller developers facing greater exposure to delays, cancellations and refinancing risk, while hyperscalers and suppliers embedded in their procurement ecosystems could gain relative weight.

Financing is a further variable. CoreWeave is cited as an example in discussions around funding uncertainty: it plans to add 5 GW of data-center capacity by 2030. That figure is a stated plan and does not indicate that the capacity is financed, under construction or commissioned.

Barclays also sees potential investment implications for cooling, low-voltage electrical equipment and semiconductors, though these are analytical views rather than confirmed market outcomes.